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Reims vs Angers — Ligue 1 2026

Reims
Reims
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Angers
Angers
H. Ekitike 59' (pen)
A. Fulgini 75'
S. Boufal 49' (pen)
12/5/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Reims57%
×Draw22%
Angers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reims
1.98
Angers
1.13

Reims creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

creates per match

Reims
2.14
Angers
0.82

allows per match

Reims
1.44
Angers
1.81

finishing

Reims-0.81scores less
Angers-0.18scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Angers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Reims or draw
79%
Reims or Angers
78%
Draw or Angers
43%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+
34%
Angers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals
86%
Reims 2+ goals
59%
Reims 3+ goals
31%
Angers 1+ goals
68%
Angers 2+ goals
31%
Angers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)
73%
Angers (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.44 · 6 matches

Angers away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.81 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 2.14 + Angers defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.98

Angers attack 0.82 + Reims defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Reims scores more
57%
level
22%
Angers scores more
21%

Reims at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
S. BoufalAngersAngers · F
8.9

Match Events

27'
Valon Berisha
30'
Dion Lopy
33'
Sofiane Boufal
35'
Valon Berisha
35'
Valon Berisha
39'
Ismaël Traoré
48'
Azor Matusiwa
49'
S. BoufalPenalty
57'
Souleyman Doumbia
59'
H. EkitikePenalty
75'
A. Fulgini↳ S. Boufal
80'
A. Donis← T. Foket
80'
M. Cho← S. Bahoken
87'
A. Flips← A. Gravillon
88'
E. Touré← D. Lopy
89'
P. Capelle← S. Doumbia
89'
A. Bobichon← S. Boufal

Possession

43%Reims

Shots

5Reims

Pass accuracy

47%Reims

Statistics

ReimsAngers
Overview
43%Possession57%
5Total Shots13
7Corners4
8Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots13
2On Target4
2Off Target6
1Blocked3
4Inside Box9
1Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
337Total Passes448
253Accurate Passes378
75%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls13
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Reims vs Angers

Angers beat Reims 2-1 in Ligue 1 on December 5, 2021.

Goals: S. Boufal (49' pen), H. Ekitike (59' pen), A. Fulgini (75').

Angers controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Reims.