Reggina 0–3 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggina

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Benevento

G. Moncini 90+6'

F. Forte 79'

R. Insigne 21'

4/5/2022

Serie B · Round 33Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Reggina33%

×Draw28%

Benevento38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RegginaExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.21

Reggina

1.11

Benevento

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 79 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

1.19

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Reggina

1.18

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Reggina

1.19

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reggina or draw

62%

Reggina or Benevento

72%

Draw or Benevento

67%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+

13%

Benevento wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals

67%

Reggina 2+ goals

30%

Reggina 3+ goals

10%

Benevento 1+ goals

70%

Benevento 2+ goals

34%

Benevento 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)

47%

Benevento (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Benevento attack 1.24 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reggina scores more

33%

level

28%

Benevento scores more

38%

Benevento at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

A. Paleari

Benevento · G

8.2

Match Events

21'

R. Insigne↳ A. Ioniţă

55'

C. Lombardi← C. Adjapong

55'

R. Rivas← A. Galabinov

62'

A. Tello← A. Ioniţă

68'

M. Viviani← R. Insigne

73'

N. Bellomo← G. Loiacono

79'

F. Forte↳ A. Tello

80'

G. Moncini← F. Forte

81'

B. Gyamfi← S. Elia

81'

J. Petriccione← G. Calò

84'

G. Denis← A. Cortinovis

84'

R. Aya← B. Amione

86'

89'

90+5'

90+1'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RegginaBenevento

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots14

5Corners5

17Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots14

5On Target8

3Off Target4

1Blocked2

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

394Total Passes493

317Accurate Passes418

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1