Benevento 1–1 Reggina: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Reggina

C. Ciano 84'

N. Pierozzi 25'

4/15/2023

Serie B · Round 33Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Benevento48%

×Draw26%

Reggina26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchReggina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.00

Benevento

1.48

Reggina

1.00

Benevento creates 48% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 58 away

1.72

creates per match

0.95

1.05

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Reggina

0.95

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Reggina

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Reggina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Reggina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

74%

Benevento or Reggina

74%

Draw or Reggina

52%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

24%

Reggina wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

77%

Benevento 2+ goals

43%

Benevento 3+ goals

19%

Reggina 1+ goals

63%

Reggina 2+ goals

26%

Reggina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

65%

Reggina (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Reggina away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Reggina defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Reggina attack 0.95 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benevento scores more

48%

level

26%

Reggina scores more

26%

Benevento at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

C. Ciano

Benevento · F

7.6

Match Events

10'

D. Liotti← G. Di Chiara

25'

N. Pierozzi↳ D. Liotti

44'

Niccolò Pierozzi

45+1'

Pasquale Schiattarella

46'

N. Manfredini← A. Paleari

46'

S. Pettinari← S. Nwankwo

46'

C. Ciano← A. Tello

68'

G. Gori← D. Strelec

68'

R. Rivas← J. Ménez

69'

E. Terranova← G. Loiacono

78'

Diego Farias← R. Improta

83'

M. Viviani← P. Schiattarella

84'

C. Ciano↳ D. Foulon

88'

Ž. Majer← G. Fabbian

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoReggina

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots8

3Corners2

11Fouls26

Shots

18Total Shots8

2On Target2

9Off Target5

7Blocked1

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

420Total Passes324

328Accurate Passes218

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls26

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1