Benevento 4–0 Reggina: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Reggina

A. Tello 69'

A. Ioniţă 57'

G. Lapadula 24'

M. Viviani 11'

11/27/2021

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Benevento48%

×Draw26%

Reggina26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchReggina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.00

Benevento

1.48

Reggina

1.00

Benevento creates 48% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 58 away

1.72

creates per match

0.95

1.05

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Reggina

0.95

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Reggina

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Reggina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Reggina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

74%

Benevento or Reggina

74%

Draw or Reggina

52%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

24%

Reggina wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

77%

Benevento 2+ goals

43%

Benevento 3+ goals

19%

Reggina 1+ goals

63%

Reggina 2+ goals

26%

Reggina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

65%

Reggina (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Reggina away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Reggina defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Reggina attack 0.95 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benevento scores more

48%

level

26%

Reggina scores more

26%

Benevento at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

G. Letizia

Benevento · D

8.3

Match Events

11'

M. Viviani↳ G. Letizia

24'

G. Lapadula↳ M. Viviani

26'

Nicolò Bianchi

46'

A. Cortinovis← F. Ricci

46'

G. Denis← A. Galabinov

54'

Salvatore Elia

57'

A. Ioniţă↳ G. Lapadula

59'

I. Lakićević← C. Adjapong

59'

P. Hetemaj← N. Bianchi

60'

E. Brignola← S. Elia

60'

A. Tello← A. Ioniţă

69'

A. Tello

70'

R. Rivas← A. Montalto

77'

G. Moncini← R. Insigne

77'

A. Talia← G. Acampora

78'

G. Di Serio← G. Lapadula

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoReggina

Overview

49%Possession51%

27Total Shots7

11Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

27Total Shots7

7On Target3

13Off Target3

7Blocked1

15Inside Box5

12Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

435Total Passes443

363Accurate Passes377

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2