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Redlands United vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland Premier League 2021

Redlands United
Redlands United
FT
7 – 0
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
5/7/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 9Arthur & Allan Morris Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Redlands United50%
×Draw19%
Magpies Crusaders31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redlands United
2.59
Magpies Crusaders
2.03

Redlands United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 10 away

creates per match

Redlands United
2.19
Magpies Crusaders
2.50

allows per match

Redlands United
1.56
Magpies Crusaders
3.00

finishing

Redlands United+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands United ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Redlands United or draw
69%
Redlands United or Magpies Crusaders
81%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
50%

Winning margin

Redlands United wins by 2+
31%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Redlands United 1+ goals
92%
Redlands United 2+ goals
73%
Redlands United 3+ goals
47%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
87%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
60%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Redlands United (draw refunded)
62%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands United attack 2.19 + Magpies Crusaders defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.59

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.50 + Redlands United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Redlands United scores more
50%
level
19%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
31%

Redlands United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Redlands United vs Magpies Crusaders

Redlands United beat Magpies Crusaders 7-0 in Queensland Premier League on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Arthur & Allan Morris Field in Brisbane.