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Magpies Crusaders vs Redlands United — Queensland NPL 2019

Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
FT
3 – 1
Redlands United
Redlands United
6/22/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 21Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Magpies Crusaders26%
×Draw18%
Redlands United56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magpies Crusaders
1.83
Redlands United
2.69

Redlands United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 60 away

creates per match

Magpies Crusaders
1.21
Redlands United
1.35

allows per match

Magpies Crusaders
4.03
Redlands United
2.45

finishing

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par
Redlands United+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magpies Crusaders ↓

Redlands United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Magpies Crusaders or draw
44%
Magpies Crusaders or Redlands United
82%
Draw or Redlands United
74%

Winning margin

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
13%
Redlands United wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
84%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
54%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
28%
Redlands United 1+ goals
93%
Redlands United 2+ goals
74%
Redlands United 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
32%
Redlands United (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magpies Crusaders at home — creates 1.21, concedes 4.03 · 29 matches

Redlands United away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.21 + Redlands United defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.83

Redlands United attack 1.35 + Magpies Crusaders defence 4.03 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Magpies Crusaders scores more
26%
level
18%
Redlands United scores more
56%

Redlands United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Magpies Crusaders 3–1 Redlands United

Magpies Crusaders beat Redlands United 3-1 in Queensland NPL on June 22, 2019.

The match was played at Sologinkin Oval in Glenella.