Magpies Crusaders 0–4 Redlands United

Magpies Crusaders

FT

0 – 4

Redlands United

8/6/2022

Queensland Premier League · Round 20Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Magpies Crusaders38%

×Draw20%

Redlands United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magpies CrusadersExpected goals in this matchRedlands United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

2.29

Magpies Crusaders

2.15

Redlands United

2.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 30 away

2.70

creates per match

2.27

2.30

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Magpies Crusaders

2.70

Redlands United

2.27

allows per match

Magpies Crusaders

2.30

Redlands United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Redlands United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magpies Crusaders ↓

Redlands United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Magpies Crusaders or draw

57%

Magpies Crusaders or Redlands United

80%

Draw or Redlands United

62%

Winning margin

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

21%

Redlands United wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

88%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

63%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

36%

Redlands United 1+ goals

90%

Redlands United 2+ goals

66%

Redlands United 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

47%

Redlands United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magpies Crusaders at home — creates 2.70, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Redlands United away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.70 + Redlands United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.15

Redlands United attack 2.27 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Magpies Crusaders scores more

38%

level

20%

Redlands United scores more

43%

Redlands United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff