RED Star FC 93 3–2 Guingamp: Result & Stats

RED Star FC 93

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Guingamp

R. Hachem 43'

J. Ikanga 35'

D. Durand 34'

L. Mafouta 71' (pen), 6'

4/24/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

RED Star FC 9335%

×Draw27%

Guingamp38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RED Star FC 93Expected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.29

RED Star FC 93

1.23

Guingamp

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 129 away

1.17

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

RED Star FC 93

1.17

Guingamp

1.25

allows per match

RED Star FC 93

1.33

Guingamp

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Guingamp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw

62%

RED Star FC 93 or Guingamp

73%

Draw or Guingamp

65%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

15%

Guingamp wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

71%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

35%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

13%

Guingamp 1+ goals

72%

Guingamp 2+ goals

37%

Guingamp 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

48%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.17 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guingamp attack 1.25 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more

35%

level

27%

Guingamp scores more

38%

Guingamp at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Mafouta

Guingamp · F

8.2

Match Events

6'

L. Mafouta↳ J. Matumona

34'

D. Durand

35'

J. Ikanga↳ B. Pierret

36'

43'

45+2'

60'

63'

63'

K. Sidibe← D. Louiserre

63'

A. Samoura← F. Mbemba

68'

T. Magnin← D. Sylla

69'

H. Benali← K. Cabral

71'

L. MafoutaPenalty

77'

77'

80'

87'

87'

J. Escartin← R. Hachem

90+5'

Bradley Danger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

REDGuingamp

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots13

0Corners8

23Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots13

5On Target6

0Off Target2

3Blocked5

8Inside Box7

0Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

268Total Passes486

183Accurate Passes412

68%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

23Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Ligue 2: RED Star FC 93 3–2 Guingamp

RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 3-2 in Ligue 2 on April 24, 2026.

Goals: L. Mafouta (6', 71' pen), D. Durand (34'), J. Ikanga (35'), R. Hachem (43').

Guingamp controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Bauer in Paris - Saint-Ouen.

RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: RED Star FC 93 3–2 Guingamp