Guingamp 3–4 RED Star FC 93: Result & Stats

Guingamp

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

RED Star FC 93

B. Labeau 78'

A. Hemia 45+1', 23'

D. Durand 60'

A. Badji 52', 3'

B. Danger 41' (pen)

8/30/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Guingamp43%

×Draw26%

RED Star FC 9330%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchRED Star FC 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.14

Guingamp

1.41

RED Star FC 93

1.14

Guingamp creates 24% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 53 away

1.40

creates per match

1.08

1.20

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Guingamp

1.40

RED Star FC 93

1.08

allows per match

Guingamp

1.20

RED Star FC 93

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

RED Star FC 93 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

70%

Guingamp or RED Star FC 93

74%

Draw or RED Star FC 93

57%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

21%

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

76%

Guingamp 2+ goals

41%

Guingamp 3+ goals

17%

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

68%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

32%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

59%

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.08 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guingamp scores more

43%

level

26%

RED Star FC 93 scores more

30%

Guingamp at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Hemia

Guingamp · F

9.9

Match Events

3'

A. Badji↳ D. Durand

23'

A. Hemia↳ K. Sidibé

26'

Loic Kouagba

41'

B. DangerPenalty

45+1'

52'

60'

63'

63'

63'

T. Luvambo← K. Sidibé

69'

L. Maronnier← L. Vallier

69'

D. Durivaux← F. Doucouré

69'

H. Benali← A. Badji

77'

A. El Hriti← R. Hachem

78'

B. Labeau

87'

J. Escartin← F. Dembi

87'

K. Cissé← M. Ifnaoui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuingampRED

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots15

8Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots15

6On Target6

7Off Target5

5Blocked4

8Inside Box12

10Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

542Total Passes377

470Accurate Passes307

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93

RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 4-3 in Ligue 2 on August 30, 2024.

Goals: A. Badji (3', 52'), A. Hemia (23', 45+1'), B. Danger (41' pen), D. Durand (60'), B. Labeau (78').

Guingamp controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.

Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93