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Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Guingamp
Guingamp
ABD
12:50
RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
7/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guingamp60%
×Draw23%
RED Star FC 9317%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.80
RED Star FC 93
0.83

Guingamp creates 117% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.60
RED Star FC 93
0.67

allows per match

Guingamp
1.00
RED Star FC 93
2.00

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

RED Star FC 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
83%
Guingamp or RED Star FC 93
77%
Draw or RED Star FC 93
40%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
35%
RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
83%
Guingamp 2+ goals
54%
Guingamp 3+ goals
27%
RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
56%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
20%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
78%
RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.60 + RED Star FC 93 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

RED Star FC 93 attack 0.67 + Guingamp defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guingamp scores more
60%
level
23%
RED Star FC 93 scores more
17%

Guingamp at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 — Match Preview

Guingamp face RED Star FC 93 on July 10, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.