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RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
D. Durand 11'
F. Diédhiou 58' (pen)
4/25/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade de Paris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

RED Star FC 9336%
×Draw28%
Clermont Foot36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RED Star FC 93
1.17
Clermont Foot
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 98 away

creates per match

RED Star FC 93
1.17
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

RED Star FC 93
1.33
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw
64%
RED Star FC 93 or Clermont Foot
72%
Draw or Clermont Foot
64%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
15%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
69%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
33%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
11%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
69%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
32%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
50%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.17 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more
36%
level
28%
Clermont Foot scores more
36%

RED Star FC 93 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "RED Star FC 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
A. BadjiRED Star FC 93RED Star FC 93 · F
7.5

Match Events

11'
D. Durand↳ A. Badji
22'
Johan Gastien
45'
Aliou Badji
51'
Bissenty Mendy
55'
M. Ifnaoui← S. Renel
55'
H. Mbock← K. Cissé
58'
F. DiédhiouPenalty
67'
Y. Koré← I. Coulibaly
68'
O. Diop← M. Bassouamina
78'
B. Meyapya← B. Mendy
78'
A. Fall← D. Durand
81'
A. Ackra← K. Bamba
82'
Y. Bellache← J. Gastien
90+1'
F. Dembi← A. Badji
90'
M. Baaloudj← F. Diédhiou

Possession

51%RED

Shots

6RED

Pass accuracy

50%RED

Statistics

REDClermont
Overview
51%Possession49%
6Total Shots9
3Corners1
20Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots9
1On Target2
1Off Target4
4Blocked3
4Inside Box7
2Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
428Total Passes412
358Accurate Passes350
84%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
20Fouls16
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: RED Star FC 93 vs Clermont Foot

RED Star FC 93 and Clermont Foot drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: D. Durand (11'), F. Diédhiou (58' pen).

RED Star FC 93 controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade de Paris in Saint-Ouen.