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Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
M. Baaloudj 10'
H. Benali 65'
9/24/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Clermont Foot44%
×Draw27%
RED Star FC 9329%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.36
RED Star FC 93
1.06

Clermont Foot creates 28% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 53 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
RED Star FC 93
1.08

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
RED Star FC 93
1.42

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

RED Star FC 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
71%
Clermont Foot or RED Star FC 93
73%
Draw or RED Star FC 93
56%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
20%
RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
74%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
39%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
16%
RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
65%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
29%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
60%
RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.08 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
44%
level
27%
RED Star FC 93 scores more
29%

Clermont Foot at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98
R. HachemRED Star FC 93RED Star FC 93 · D
7.9

Match Events

10'
M. Baaloudj↳ H. Keïta
20'
Cheick Konate
30'
Kemo Cissé
56'
A. Ackra← H. Saivet
56'
M. Douane← M. Bassouamina
58'
A. Fall← A. Anani
58'
D. Durand← K. Cissé
65'
H. Benali↳ M. Ifnaoui
79'
J. Isala← J. Jacquet
79'
F. Diédhiou← M. Baaloudj
79'
M. Bouchenna← Y. Magnin
82'
Allan Ackra
87'
A. El Hriti← S. Renel
87'
B. Mendy← H. Benali
90+2'
I. Botella← M. Ifnaoui

Possession

51%Clermont

Shots

11Clermont

Pass accuracy

51%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontRED
Overview
51%Possession49%
11Total Shots9
6Corners4
15Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots9
4On Target4
3Off Target3
4Blocked2
7Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
420Total Passes405
337Accurate Passes316
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93

Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on September 24, 2024.

Goals: M. Baaloudj (10'), H. Benali (65').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.