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RED Star FC 93 vs Chateauroux — Ligue 2 2018

RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Chateauroux
Chateauroux
1/25/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Pierre Brisson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

RED Star FC 9336%
×Draw29%
Chateauroux34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RED Star FC 93
1.12
Chateauroux
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 52 away

creates per match

RED Star FC 93
1.05
Chateauroux
0.75

allows per match

RED Star FC 93
1.42
Chateauroux
1.19

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par
Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Chateauroux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw
66%
RED Star FC 93 or Chateauroux
71%
Draw or Chateauroux
64%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
15%
Chateauroux wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
67%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
31%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
10%
Chateauroux 1+ goals
66%
Chateauroux 2+ goals
29%
Chateauroux 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
51%
Chateauroux (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.19 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.05 + Chateauroux defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Chateauroux attack 0.75 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more
36%
level
29%
Chateauroux scores more
34%

RED Star FC 93 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "RED Star FC 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: RED Star FC 93 1–3 Chateauroux

Chateauroux beat RED Star FC 93 3-1 in Ligue 2 on January 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Pierre Brisson in Beauvais.