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Chateauroux vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 2018

Chateauroux
Chateauroux
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
8/17/2018Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Gaston-Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chateauroux34%
×Draw28%
RED Star FC 9338%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chateauroux
1.16
RED Star FC 93
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Chateauroux
1.00
RED Star FC 93
1.04

allows per match

Chateauroux
1.46
RED Star FC 93
1.32

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par
RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

RED Star FC 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw
62%
Chateauroux or RED Star FC 93
72%
Draw or RED Star FC 93
66%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+
14%
RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals
69%
Chateauroux 2+ goals
32%
Chateauroux 3+ goals
11%
RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
71%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
36%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)
47%
RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.00 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.04 + Chateauroux defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chateauroux scores more
34%
level
28%
RED Star FC 93 scores more
38%

RED Star FC 93 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "RED Star FC 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chateauroux vs RED Star FC 93

Chateauroux and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on August 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Petit in Chateauroux.