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Chateauroux vs RED Star FC 93 — Coupe de France 2018

Chateauroux
Chateauroux
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
11/18/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chateauroux27%
×Draw23%
RED Star FC 9350%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chateauroux
1.32
RED Star FC 93
1.86

RED Star FC 93 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Chateauroux
1.40
RED Star FC 93
2.33

allows per match

Chateauroux
1.40
RED Star FC 93
1.25

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par
RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

RED Star FC 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw
50%
Chateauroux or RED Star FC 93
77%
Draw or RED Star FC 93
73%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+
12%
RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals
73%
Chateauroux 2+ goals
38%
Chateauroux 3+ goals
15%
RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
84%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
55%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)
35%
RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.40 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

RED Star FC 93 attack 2.33 + Chateauroux defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chateauroux scores more
27%
level
23%
RED Star FC 93 scores more
50%

RED Star FC 93 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RED Star FC 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Chateauroux 2–1 RED Star FC 93

Chateauroux beat RED Star FC 93 2-1 in Coupe de France on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit in Châteauroux.