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Red Bull Salzburg vs FK Crvena Zvezda — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
1/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg37%
×Draw23%
FK Crvena Zvezda40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
1.61
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.95
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.55

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.79
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.27

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
60%
Red Bull Salzburg or FK Crvena Zvezda
77%
Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda
63%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
18%
FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
80%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
48%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
22%
FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
81%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
50%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
48%
FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.95 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.61

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 1.55 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
37%
level
23%
FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
40%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 FK Crvena Zvezda

Red Bull Salzburg beat FK Crvena Zvezda 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 15, 2026.