Red Bull Salzburg 2–2 FK Crvena Zvezda

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FK Crvena Zvezda

8/29/2018

UEFA Champions League · Play-offsRed Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg49%

×Draw23%

FK Crvena Zvezda28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchFK Crvena Zvezda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.27

Red Bull Salzburg

1.77

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.27

Red Bull Salzburg creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

1.74

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.74

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.00

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.53

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

72%

Red Bull Salzburg or FK Crvena Zvezda

77%

Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda

51%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

27%

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

83%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

53%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

26%

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

72%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

36%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

64%

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.74 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 1.00 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

49%

level

23%

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

28%

Red Bull Salzburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff