FK Crvena Zvezda 0–0 Red Bull Salzburg

FK Crvena Zvezda

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Red Bull Salzburg

8/21/2018

UEFA Champions League · Play-offsRajko Mitić Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda50%

×Draw22%

Red Bull Salzburg28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.38

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.92

Red Bull Salzburg

1.38

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

1.95

creates per match

1.58

1.18

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.95

Red Bull Salzburg

1.58

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.18

Red Bull Salzburg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

72%

FK Crvena Zvezda or Red Bull Salzburg

78%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

50%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

28%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

85%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

57%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

30%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

75%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

40%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

64%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 1.95 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.58 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

50%

level

22%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

28%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff