Recoleta 0–0 Fernández Vial: Result & Stats

Recoleta

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fernández Vial

2/23/2022

Primera B · Round 2Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Recoleta40%

×Draw27%

Fernández Vial33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RecoletaExpected goals in this matchFernández Vial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Recoleta

1.36

Fernández Vial

1.21

Recoleta creates 12% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 31 away

1.34

creates per match

1.10

1.31

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Recoleta

1.34

Fernández Vial

1.10

allows per match

Recoleta

1.31

Fernández Vial

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recoleta+0.00on par

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recoleta ↓

Fernández Vial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Recoleta or draw

67%

Recoleta or Fernández Vial

73%

Draw or Fernández Vial

60%

Winning margin

Recoleta wins by 2+

19%

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Recoleta 1+ goals

74%

Recoleta 2+ goals

39%

Recoleta 3+ goals

16%

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

70%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

34%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Recoleta (draw refunded)

55%

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recoleta at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 71 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recoleta attack 1.34 + Fernández Vial defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Fernández Vial attack 1.10 + Recoleta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Recoleta scores more

40%

level

27%

Fernández Vial scores more

33%

Recoleta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff