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Fernández Vial vs Recoleta — Primera B 2018

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Recoleta
Recoleta
7/10/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 19Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fernández Vial38%
×Draw28%
Recoleta34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.18
Recoleta
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 70 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.06
Recoleta
0.94

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.26
Recoleta
1.29

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Recoleta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
66%
Fernández Vial or Recoleta
72%
Draw or Recoleta
62%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
16%
Recoleta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
69%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
33%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
12%
Recoleta 1+ goals
67%
Recoleta 2+ goals
30%
Recoleta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
53%
Recoleta (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Recoleta away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.06 + Recoleta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Recoleta attack 0.94 + Fernández Vial defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
38%
level
28%
Recoleta scores more
34%

Fernández Vial at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Fernández Vial 0–0 Recoleta

Fernández Vial and Recoleta drew 0-0 in Primera B on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.