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Recoleta vs Fernández Vial — Segunda División 2020

Recoleta
Recoleta
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
11/15/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Recoleta41%
×Draw25%
Fernández Vial34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recoleta
1.50
Fernández Vial
1.33

Recoleta creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

Recoleta
2.00
Fernández Vial
1.21

allows per match

Recoleta
1.45
Fernández Vial
1.00

finishing

Recoleta+0.00on par
Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recoleta ↓

Fernández Vial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Recoleta or draw
66%
Recoleta or Fernández Vial
75%
Draw or Fernández Vial
59%

Winning margin

Recoleta wins by 2+
20%
Fernández Vial wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Recoleta 1+ goals
78%
Recoleta 2+ goals
44%
Recoleta 3+ goals
19%
Fernández Vial 1+ goals
74%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
38%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Recoleta (draw refunded)
55%
Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recoleta at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recoleta attack 2.00 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fernández Vial attack 1.21 + Recoleta defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Recoleta scores more
41%
level
25%
Fernández Vial scores more
34%

Recoleta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Recoleta 2–2 Fernández Vial

Recoleta and Fernández Vial drew 2-2 in Segunda División on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.