Real Valladolid II 0–2 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Real Valladolid II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real Unión

Nacho Sánchez 24'

Alain Oyarzun 11'

9/5/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Valladolid II42%

×Draw26%

Real Unión32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.23

Real Valladolid II

1.43

Real Unión

1.23

Real Valladolid II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

1.20

creates per match

0.98

1.47

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

1.20

Real Unión

0.98

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

1.47

Real Unión

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

68%

Real Valladolid II or Real Unión

74%

Draw or Real Unión

58%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

20%

Real Unión wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

76%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

42%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

17%

Real Unión 1+ goals

71%

Real Unión 2+ goals

35%

Real Unión 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

56%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.43

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

42%

level

26%

Real Unión scores more

32%

Real Valladolid II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

L. Rosa

11'

Alain Oyarzun

24'

Nacho Sánchez

46'

Apa← Lucas Rosa

52'

Dali← Víctor Narro

57'

P. Vitor

59'

E. Ruiz

62'

Mikel Pradera← D. Temenuzhkov

66'

Castri← Fran Rivera

68'

Elizondo← Alain Oyarzun

68'

Miguel Santos← Ekhi Senar

78'

Mario Maroto← Sergio Nieto

81'

A. Elizondo

90'

Mario Capelete← Aitor Seguín

90'

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Júlio Baptista

46'▲Apa←▼Lucas Rosa

52'▲Dali←▼Víctor Narro

66'▲Castri←▼Fran Rivera

78'▲Mario Maroto←▼Sergio Nieto

Real Valladolid II substitutes

ApaDaliCastriMarotoMorenoLópezAmoahPalomequeArroyoSeguraSocorroMeykher

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

62'▲Mikel Pradera←▼D. Temenuzhkov

68'▲Elizondo←▼Alain Oyarzun

68'▲Miguel Santos←▼Ekhi Senar

90'▲Mario Capelete←▼Aitor Seguín

90'▲Vivancos←▼Erik Ruiz

Real Unión substitutes

PraderaElizondoSantosCapeleteVivancosBarbuNúñezIzaArzuaga

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 0–2 Real Unión

Real Unión beat Real Valladolid II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 5, 2021.

Goals: Alain Oyarzun (11'), Nacho Sánchez (24').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 0–2 Real Unión