Real Unión 2–1 Real Valladolid II: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Valladolid II

3/2/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Unión46%

×Draw25%

Real Valladolid II28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchReal Valladolid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.14

Real Unión

1.54

Real Valladolid II

1.14

Real Unión creates 35% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 31 away

1.46

creates per match

1.16

1.11

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Real Valladolid II

1.16

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Real Valladolid II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Real Valladolid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

72%

Real Unión or Real Valladolid II

75%

Draw or Real Valladolid II

54%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

23%

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

79%

Real Unión 2+ goals

45%

Real Unión 3+ goals

20%

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

68%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

32%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

62%

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Unión scores more

46%

level

25%

Real Valladolid II scores more

28%

Real Unión at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff