Real Valladolid II 1–0 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Real Valladolid II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Unión

Kuki 26'

2/29/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II56%

×Draw25%

Real Unión19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.83

Real Valladolid II

1.61

Real Unión

0.83

Real Valladolid II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

2.07

creates per match

0.96

0.71

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

2.07

Real Unión

0.96

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

0.71

Real Unión

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

81%

Real Valladolid II or Real Unión

75%

Draw or Real Unión

44%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

30%

Real Unión wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

80%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

48%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

22%

Real Unión 1+ goals

56%

Real Unión 2+ goals

20%

Real Unión 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

74%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

56%

level

25%

Real Unión scores more

19%

Real Valladolid II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Samu Pérez← Gaizka Campos

26'

Kuki

58'

Jorge Galán← Mario Capelete

67'

Eneko Eizmendi← Alain Eizmendi

71'

Javier Aparicio← Roberto Corral

78'

Miguel Ángel Rubio← Miguel De la Fuente

86'

Aitor Aranzabe← Iñaki Recio

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Baraja

15'▲Samu Pérez←▼Gaizka Campos

71'▲Javier Aparicio←▼Roberto Corral

78'▲Miguel Ángel Rubio←▼Miguel De la Fuente

Real Valladolid II substitutes

PérezAparicioRubioÁlvarezMuñozUcheCerro

Manager: Gorka Exteberría

58'▲Jorge Galán←▼Mario Capelete

67'▲Eneko Eizmendi←▼Alain Eizmendi

86'▲Aitor Aranzabe←▼Iñaki Recio

Real Unión substitutes

GalánEizmendiAranzabeLarruceaGarridoAzkoitiTxusta

Match Recap: Real Valladolid II vs Real Unión

Real Valladolid II beat Real Unión 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 29, 2020.

Goals: Kuki (26').

The match was played at Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Valladolid II vs Real Unión