Real Tomayapo 2–1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Real Tomayapo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

F. Gatti 27'

R. Lima 9'

D. Roca 71'

8/3/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 16Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Real Tomayapo51%

×Draw25%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TomayapoExpected goals in this matchGualberto Villarroel SJ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.07

Real Tomayapo

1.64

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.07

Real Tomayapo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 40 away

1.37

creates per match

1.13

1.01

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Real Tomayapo

1.37

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.13

allows per match

Real Tomayapo

1.01

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Gualberto Villarroel SJ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw

75%

Real Tomayapo or Gualberto Villarroel SJ

75%

Draw or Gualberto Villarroel SJ

49%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

27%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

81%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

49%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

23%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals

66%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals

29%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

67%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.64

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 1.13 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more

51%

level

25%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more

25%

Real Tomayapo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Bejarano

Real Tomayapo · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

R. Lima

14'

Leandro Vera

25'

Joel Bejarano

27'

F. Gatti↳ M. Bejarano

45+7'

Josue Castillo

45+3'

Rai Lima

45+2'

Rai LimaCard upgrade

46'

K. Ceceri← A. Landa

46'

S. Pena← F. Vasquez

51'

Francisco Gatti

53'

J. Orellana← D. Perea

68'

M. Escobar←

71'

D. Roca

72'

L. Figueroa← F. Gatti

81'

Sergio Villamíl

85'

J. Villamil← A. Seimandi

89'

Danny Pérez

89'

F. Aguilar← D. Perez

90+1'

F. Roca← J. Bejarano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealGualberto

Overview

37%Possession63%

12Total Shots18

0.44Expected Goals (xG)1.06

5Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots18

4On Target5

4Off Target6

4Blocked7

6Inside Box9

6Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

272Total Passes458

203Accurate Passes378

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3