Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3–1 Real Tomayapo

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Real Tomayapo

R. Becerra 45'

E. Michelli 42'

J. Lopez 5'

L. Corulo 33' (pen)

3/30/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ60%

×Draw21%

Real Tomayapo19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualberto Villarroel SJExpected goals in this matchReal Tomayapo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.05

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2.04

Real Tomayapo

1.05

Gualberto Villarroel SJ creates 94% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 90 away

2.15

creates per match

0.87

1.23

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2.15

Real Tomayapo

0.87

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.23

Real Tomayapo

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

Real Tomayapo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw

81%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or Real Tomayapo

79%

Draw or Real Tomayapo

40%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+

36%

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals

87%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals

60%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals

33%

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

65%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

28%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)

76%

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

Real Tomayapo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 2.15 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.04

Real Tomayapo attack 0.87 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more

60%

level

21%

Real Tomayapo scores more

19%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gualberto Villarroel SJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

E. Michelli

Gualberto Villarroel SJ · D

7.7

Match Events

5'

J. Lopez

33'

L. CoruloPenalty

40'

Mijaíl Avilés

42'

E. Michelli

45'

R. Becerra↳ D. Calero

46'

J. Ramallo← R. Bustos

46'

J. Bejarano← D. Vargas

46'

D. Perez← F. Aguilar

46'

M. Tomianovic← M. Aviles

46'

R. Mendez← M. G. Barbery Gil

57'

Jhoni Ramallo

66'

O. Siles← R. Lima

66'

B. Fernandez← T. Minda

68'

J. Villamil← E. Michelli

68'

F. Arismendi← D. Calero

76'

S. Galindo← J. Lopez

86'

Omar Siles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GualbertoReal

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots15

2Corners7

13Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots15

4On Target5

6Off Target7

1Blocked3

3Inside Box8

8Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

444Total Passes397

382Accurate Passes330

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1