Gualberto Villarroel SJ 5–0 Real Tomayapo

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Real Tomayapo

H. Rodríguez 90'

B. Sobrero 48', 29'

S. Torres 45+1'

J. Sanguinetti 41'

9/24/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ60%

×Draw21%

Real Tomayapo19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualberto Villarroel SJExpected goals in this matchReal Tomayapo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.05

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2.04

Real Tomayapo

1.05

Gualberto Villarroel SJ creates 94% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 90 away

2.15

creates per match

0.87

1.23

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2.15

Real Tomayapo

0.87

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.23

Real Tomayapo

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

Real Tomayapo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw

81%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or Real Tomayapo

79%

Draw or Real Tomayapo

40%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+

36%

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals

87%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals

60%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals

33%

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

65%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

28%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)

76%

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

Real Tomayapo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 2.15 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.04

Real Tomayapo attack 0.87 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more

60%

level

21%

Real Tomayapo scores more

19%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gualberto Villarroel SJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Sobrero

Gualberto Villarroel SJ · F

8.7

Match Events

29'

B. Sobrero

31'

Brian SobreroGoal confirmed

41'

J. Sanguinetti

45+1'

S. Torres↳ J. Sanguinetti

46'

Percy Loza

46'

M. Tomianovic← M. Barbery

46'

O. Becerra← J. Villamíl

46'

K. Mamani← M. Cardan

47'

Miguel Agustín Graneros

48'

B. Sobrero↳ J. Sanguinetti

57'

P. Arano← L. Figueroa

66'

Agustin Alcaraz

67'

S. Sandoval← S. Villamíl

71'

Javier Sanguinetti

71'

R. Ferrufino← P. Loza

71'

R. Vargas← B. Sobrero

77'

Luis Banegas

78'

R. Rivas← L. Banegas

79'

L. Serrano← J. Sanguinetti

85'

A. Seimandi← N. Landa

90'

H. Rodríguez↳ R. Ferrufino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GualbertoReal

Overview

55%Possession45%

24Total Shots12

3Corners5

9Fouls8

Shots

24Total Shots12

8On Target5

10Off Target5

6Blocked2

11Inside Box5

13Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

443Total Passes373

375Accurate Passes299

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Primera División: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 5–0 Real Tomayapo

Gualberto Villarroel SJ beat Real Tomayapo 5-0 in Primera División on September 24, 2024.

Goals: B. Sobrero (29', 48'), J. Sanguinetti (41'), S. Torres (45+1'), H. Rodríguez (90').

Gualberto Villarroel SJ controlled possession (55%) and registered 24 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Tomayapo — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 5–0 Real Tomayapo