Real Sociedad II 1–0 Lugo: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lugo

Mikel Goti 27'

9/22/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad II47%

×Draw27%

Lugo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchLugo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.94

Real Sociedad II

1.38

Lugo

0.94

Real Sociedad II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.55

creates per match

0.84

1.03

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.55

Lugo

0.84

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.03

Lugo

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Lugo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

74%

Real Sociedad II or Lugo

73%

Draw or Lugo

53%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

23%

Lugo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

75%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

40%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

16%

Lugo 1+ goals

61%

Lugo 2+ goals

24%

Lugo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

65%

Lugo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Lugo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lugo attack 0.84 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

47%

level

27%

Lugo scores more

26%

Real Sociedad II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Mikel Goti

36'

37'

J. Balda

46'

Jorge González← Martín Ochoa

48'

Mikel Rodríguez← Mikel Goti

64'

Dani Díaz← Eneko Astigarraga

64'

J. Ochieng← A. Lebarbier

64'

Manex Gibelalde← Tomás Carbonell

69'

Dani Vidal← Yayo

69'

N. Nicholas← Ander Zoilo

74'

R. Martinez

77'

Eder García← Arkaitz Mariezkurrena

84'

F. Lesme← Álex Lizancos

84'

Marcos Sánchez← Roger Martínez

Real

Lugo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Francisco

48'▲Mikel Rodríguez←▼Mikel Goti

64'▲Dani Díaz←▼Eneko Astigarraga

64'▲J. Ochieng←▼A. Lebarbier

64'▲Manex Gibelalde←▼Tomás Carbonell

77'▲Eder García←▼Arkaitz Mariezkurrena

Real Sociedad II substitutes

RodríguezDíazOchiengGibelaldeGarcíaMarchalAranaRamírezGorosabelMerinoOsazuwaAgote

Manager: Lolo Escobar

46'▲Jorge González←▼Martín Ochoa

69'▲Dani Vidal←▼Yayo

69'▲N. Nicholas←▼Ander Zoilo

84'▲F. Lesme←▼Álex Lizancos

84'▲Marcos Sánchez←▼Roger Martínez

Lugo substitutes

GonzálezVidalNicholasLesmeSánchezNoyaPereroCuéllarCacharrónRubal