Real Sociedad II 1–1 Lugo: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lugo

Jon Karrikaburu 72'

Manu Barreiro 31' (pen)

2/5/2022

Segunda División · Round 26Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Real Sociedad II41%

×Draw27%

Lugo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchLugo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.11

Real Sociedad II

1.30

Lugo

1.11

Real Sociedad II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 105 away

1.14

creates per match

0.83

1.40

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.14

Lugo

0.83

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.40

Lugo

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Lugo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

68%

Real Sociedad II or Lugo

73%

Draw or Lugo

59%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

18%

Lugo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

73%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

37%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

14%

Lugo 1+ goals

67%

Lugo 2+ goals

30%

Lugo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

56%

Lugo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.46 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.14 + Lugo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lugo attack 0.83 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

41%

level

27%

Lugo scores more

32%

Real Sociedad II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Alberto Rodríguez

Lugo · D

7.5

Match Events

28'

Enrique Clemente

31'

Manu BarreiroPenalty

42'

Ricard Sánchez

55'

Jon Ander Olasagasti

64'

Xeber Alkain← Roberto López

64'

Álex Sola← Gabilondo

72'

Jon Karrikaburu↳ Xeber Alkain

73'

Joselu← Manu Barreiro

73'

Canella← O. Lebedenko

80'

Sebas Moyano← J. Cuéllar

80'

Clavería← Juanpe

83'

Germán Valera← Julen Lobete

83'

P. Pokorný← Beñat Turrientes

85'

Chris Ramos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealLugo

Overview

73%Possession27%

21Total Shots10

13Corners0

8Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots10

5On Target2

6Off Target6

10Blocked2

11Inside Box3

10Outside Box7

Passing

73%Possession27%

530Total Passes199

457Accurate Passes133

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4

Segunda División: Real Sociedad II 1–1 Lugo

Real Sociedad II and Lugo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on February 5, 2022.

Goals: Manu Barreiro (31' pen), Jon Karrikaburu (72').

Real Sociedad II controlled possession (73%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Reale Arena in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad II vs Lugo — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Real Sociedad II 1–1 Lugo