Lugo vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
Lugo34%
Real Sociedad II35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 57 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lugo ↓
Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches
Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lugo attack 1.09 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01
Real Sociedad II attack 0.92 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 35%?"
Real Sociedad II at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 35% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Real Sociedad II substitutes
Tenerife
Celta de Vigo II
Zamora
Ponferradina
Pontevedra
Barakaldo
Real Madrid II
Unionistas de SalamancaLugo
Mérida AD
Arenas Getxo
Racing Ferrol
Athletic Club II
Cacereño
Real Avilés
Ourense CF
CF Talavera
Guadalajara
Osasuna II
ArenteiroIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Lugo host Real Sociedad II on Saturday, 27 January 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019/2020 season.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Lugo 1–0 Real Sociedad II
Lugo beat Real Sociedad II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 27, 2024.
Goals: Willy Ledesma (24').
The match was played at Estadio Anxo Carro in Lugo.