Real Sociedad II 1–2 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cornellà

Alberto Dadie 76'

Robert Simón 88'

E. Sutherland 57'

3/9/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Sociedad II52%

×Draw26%

Cornellà22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.85

Real Sociedad II

1.48

Cornellà

0.85

Real Sociedad II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.55

creates per match

0.68

1.03

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.55

Cornellà

0.68

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.03

Cornellà

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

78%

Real Sociedad II or Cornellà

74%

Draw or Cornellà

48%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

26%

Cornellà wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

77%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

43%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

19%

Cornellà 1+ goals

57%

Cornellà 2+ goals

21%

Cornellà 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

71%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Cornellà defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cornellà attack 0.68 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

52%

level

26%

Cornellà scores more

22%

Real Sociedad II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

J. Martin

9'

Toni Arranz

18'

Y. Meikher← Rubén Miño

28'

C. Mendes

45+1'

M. Tenas

57'

E. Sutherland

66'

Eder García← Ekain Azkune

66'

J. Ochieng← Mikel Rodríguez

67'

P. Soma← Marc Tenas

67'

Robert Simón← Toni Arranz

76'

Alberto Dadie

81'

Arkaitz Mariezkurrena← Mikel Goti

86'

Ekain Orobengoa← B. Fiabema

86'

Gonpi← E. Sutherland

88'

Robert Simón

Real

Cornellà

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Sergio Francisco

66'▲Eder García←▼Ekain Azkune

66'▲J. Ochieng←▼Mikel Rodríguez

81'▲Arkaitz Mariezkurrena←▼Mikel Goti

86'▲Ekain Orobengoa←▼B. Fiabema

Real Sociedad II substitutes

GarcíaOchiengMariezkurrenaOrobengoaLebarbierArzakAstigarragaCámaraOlasagastiBeitiaRodríguezAgote

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

18'▲Y. Meikher←▼Rubén Miño

67'▲P. Soma←▼Marc Tenas

67'▲Robert Simón←▼Toni Arranz

86'▲Gonpi←▼E. Sutherland

Cornellà substitutes

MeikherSomaSimónGonpiCanarioMacíasVilaplana