Cornellà 0–1 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Sociedad II

Mikel Goti 35'

10/1/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà34%

×Draw33%

Real Sociedad II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

Cornellà

0.91

Real Sociedad II

0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Cornellà

0.89

Real Sociedad II

0.92

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Real Sociedad II

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

66%

Cornellà or Real Sociedad II

67%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

66%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

12%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

60%

Cornellà 2+ goals

23%

Cornellà 3+ goals

6%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

60%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

23%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

50%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Real Sociedad II attack 0.92 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Cornellà scores more

34%

level

33%

Real Sociedad II scores more

34%

Cornellà at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Mikel Goti

40'

A. Hernandez

46'

José Mas← Kike López

46'

Marc Tenas← Gonpi

52'

E. Verges

55'

J. Aramburu

60'

Alberto Dadie← Ekain Azkune

60'

Ander Zoilo← Unax Agote

75'

P. Marin

76'

Ekain Orobengoa← B. Fiabema

76'

J. Ochieng← Mikel Goti

78'

Iñaki Rupérez← J. Aramburu

82'

Mamor Niang← Toni Arranz

82'

P. Soma← Sergio Ayala

88'

Koffi← Eudald Vergés

Cornellà

Real

▼

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⚽

▼

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▼

▼

▼

▼

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Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

46'▲José Mas←▼Kike López

46'▲Marc Tenas←▼Gonpi

82'▲Mamor Niang←▼Toni Arranz

82'▲P. Soma←▼Sergio Ayala

88'▲Koffi←▼Eudald Vergés

Cornellà substitutes

MasTenasNiangSomaKoffiCherradiGarridoRíosMacíasGorritiPescaHao

Manager: Sergio Francisco

60'▲Alberto Dadie←▼Ekain Azkune

60'▲Ander Zoilo←▼Unax Agote

76'▲Ekain Orobengoa←▼B. Fiabema

76'▲J. Ochieng←▼Mikel Goti

78'▲Iñaki Rupérez←▼J. Aramburu

Real Sociedad II substitutes

DadieZoiloOrobengoaOchiengRupérezLebarbierAstigarragaGalindoRodríguezRodríguez