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Real Sociedad II vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cornellà
Cornellà
4/29/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad II59%
×Draw23%
Cornellà17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.75
Cornellà
0.82

Real Sociedad II creates 113% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.85
Cornellà
0.84

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
0.80
Cornellà
1.66

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Cornellà →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
83%
Real Sociedad II or Cornellà
77%
Draw or Cornellà
41%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
34%
Cornellà wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
83%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
52%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
25%
Cornellà 1+ goals
56%
Cornellà 2+ goals
20%
Cornellà 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
77%
Cornellà (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cornellà attack 0.84 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
59%
level
23%
Cornellà scores more
17%

Real Sociedad II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 1–1 Cornellà

Real Sociedad II and Cornellà drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.