Real Sociedad II 2–2 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Barakaldo

Mikel Goti 41', 38'

Aritz Muguruza 88'

Pablo Santiago 84'

3/30/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad II45%

×Draw27%

Barakaldo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Real Sociedad II

1.40

Barakaldo

1.06

Real Sociedad II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.55

creates per match

1.08

1.03

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.55

Barakaldo

1.08

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.03

Barakaldo

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Barakaldo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

71%

Real Sociedad II or Barakaldo

73%

Draw or Barakaldo

55%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

21%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

75%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

41%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

17%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

65%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

29%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

61%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Barakaldo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Barakaldo attack 1.08 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

45%

level

27%

Barakaldo scores more

29%

Real Sociedad II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Jon Balda← Unax Agote

38'

Mikel Goti

41'

Mikel Goti

46'

A. Jelbat← Imanol Torre

46'

Aritz Muguruza← Borja García

50'

A. Jelbat

67'

Eder García← Alex Marchal

67'

Jon Merino← Peru Rodríguez

67'

Ekain Orobengoa← Gorka Carrera

70'

Urki Txoperena← Jesús

75'

Unai Buján← Beñat Domingo

78'

Lander Astiazarán← Mikel Rodríguez

84'

Pablo Santiago

85'

P. Santiago

88'

Aritz Muguruza

Real

Barakaldo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Francisco

18'▲Jon Balda←▼Unax Agote

67'▲Eder García←▼Alex Marchal

67'▲Jon Merino←▼Peru Rodríguez

67'▲Ekain Orobengoa←▼Gorka Carrera

78'▲Lander Astiazarán←▼Mikel Rodríguez

Real Sociedad II substitutes

BaldaGarcíaMerinoOrobengoaAstiazaránRoperoGibelaldeLebarbierArana

Manager: Imanol de la Sota

46'▲A. Jelbat←▼Imanol Torre

46'▲Aritz Muguruza←▼Borja García

70'▲Urki Txoperena←▼Jesús

75'▲Unai Buján←▼Beñat Domingo

Barakaldo substitutes

JelbatMuguruzaTxoperenaBujánTena

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 2–2 Barakaldo

Real Sociedad II and Barakaldo drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 30, 2025.

Goals: Mikel Goti (38', 41'), Pablo Santiago (84'), Aritz Muguruza (88').

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad II vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 2–2 Barakaldo