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Barakaldo vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
11/8/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Barakaldo34%
×Draw26%
Real Sociedad II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.23
Real Sociedad II
1.36

Real Sociedad II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 46 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.29
Real Sociedad II
1.26

allows per match

Barakaldo
1.46
Real Sociedad II
1.17

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
60%
Barakaldo or Real Sociedad II
74%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
66%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
14%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
71%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
35%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
13%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
74%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
39%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
46%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.29 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Sociedad II attack 1.26 + Barakaldo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barakaldo scores more
34%
level
26%
Real Sociedad II scores more
40%

Real Sociedad II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barakaldo vs Real Sociedad II

Real Sociedad II beat Barakaldo 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente in Barakaldo.