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Real Sociedad II vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Barakaldo
Barakaldo
2/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Sociedad II62%
×Draw22%
Barakaldo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.85
Barakaldo
0.81

Real Sociedad II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.85
Barakaldo
0.82

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
0.80
Barakaldo
1.86

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Barakaldo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
84%
Real Sociedad II or Barakaldo
78%
Draw or Barakaldo
38%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
36%
Barakaldo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
84%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
55%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
28%
Barakaldo 1+ goals
56%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
19%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
80%
Barakaldo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Barakaldo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Barakaldo attack 0.82 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
62%
level
22%
Barakaldo scores more
16%

Real Sociedad II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 2–4 Barakaldo

Barakaldo beat Real Sociedad II 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.