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Real San Joaquín vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

Real San Joaquín
Real San Joaquín
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
General Velásquez
General Velásquez
5/25/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzmán Díaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Real San Joaquín37%
×Draw27%
General Velásquez35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real San Joaquín
1.25
General Velásquez
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 77 away

creates per match

Real San Joaquín
1.20
General Velásquez
1.06

allows per match

Real San Joaquín
1.35
General Velásquez
1.31

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par
General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

General Velásquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw
65%
Real San Joaquín or General Velásquez
73%
Draw or General Velásquez
63%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+
16%
General Velásquez wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals
71%
Real San Joaquín 2+ goals
36%
Real San Joaquín 3+ goals
13%
General Velásquez 1+ goals
70%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
34%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)
51%
General Velásquez (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more
37%
level
27%
General Velásquez scores more
35%

Real San Joaquín at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real San Joaquín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Real San Joaquín 1–2 General Velásquez

General Velásquez beat Real San Joaquín 2-1 in Segunda División on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzmán Díaz in Santiago de Chile.