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General Velásquez vs Real San Joaquín — Segunda División 2020

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Real San Joaquín
Real San Joaquín
10/26/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

General Velásquez52%
×Draw25%
Real San Joaquín23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.60
Real San Joaquín
0.99

General Velásquez creates 62% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 55 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.43
Real San Joaquín
0.95

allows per match

General Velásquez
1.03
Real San Joaquín
1.78

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Real San Joaquín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
77%
General Velásquez or Real San Joaquín
75%
Draw or Real San Joaquín
48%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
27%
Real San Joaquín wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
80%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
47%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
22%
Real San Joaquín 1+ goals
63%
Real San Joaquín 2+ goals
26%
Real San Joaquín 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
69%
Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

General Velásquez scores more
52%
level
25%
Real San Joaquín scores more
23%

General Velásquez at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Velásquez vs Real San Joaquín

General Velásquez beat Real San Joaquín 2-1 in Segunda División on October 26, 2025.