Real San Joaquín 2–0 General Velásquez

Real San Joaquín

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

General Velásquez

J. Ibarra 52'

L. Díaz 46'

10/14/2023

Segunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal de San Joaquín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Real San Joaquín37%

×Draw27%

General Velásquez35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San JoaquínExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

Real San Joaquín

1.25

General Velásquez

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 77 away

1.20

creates per match

1.06

1.35

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Real San Joaquín

1.20

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Real San Joaquín

1.35

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw

65%

Real San Joaquín or General Velásquez

73%

Draw or General Velásquez

63%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

16%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

71%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

36%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

13%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

70%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

34%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

51%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more

37%

level

27%

General Velásquez scores more

35%

Real San Joaquín at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real San Joaquín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

L. Díaz

52'

J. Ibarra

56'

C. Vilches← M. Villablanca

56'

E. Pino← J. Tobar

69'

J. Maulén← L. Pérez

69'

M. Heredia← P. Ugarte

71'

J. Gaete← C. González

74'

A. Lagos← I. Cataldo

85'

A. Fernández← J. Ibarra

85'

F. Barahona← H. Toro

85'

N. Guerra← L. Díaz

Real

General

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ibarra

Collao

Manager: J. Lizama

69'▲J. Maulén←▼L. Pérez

69'▲M. Heredia←▼P. Ugarte

85'▲A. Fernández←▼J. Ibarra

85'▲F. Barahona←▼H. Toro

85'▲N. Guerra←▼L. Díaz

Real San Joaquín substitutes

MaulénHerediaFernándezBarahonaGuerraPérezBarrera

Manager: G. Silva

56'▲C. Vilches←▼M. Villablanca

56'▲E. Pino←▼J. Tobar

71'▲J. Gaete←▼C. González

74'▲A. Lagos←▼I. Cataldo

General Velásquez substitutes

VilchesPinoGaeteLagosFuentesAlegríaPino

Segunda División: Real San Joaquín 2–0 General Velásquez

Real San Joaquín beat General Velásquez 2-0 in Segunda División on October 14, 2023.

Goals: L. Díaz (46'), J. Ibarra (52').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de San Joaquín in San Joaquín.

Real San Joaquín vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Real San Joaquín 2–0 General Velásquez