Real San Joaquín 0–4 Concón National

Real San Joaquín

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Concón National

R. Gattas 81'

M. Wassenne 57'

S. Ubilla 43'

L. Vargas 24'

11/30/2025

Segunda División · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real San Joaquín34%

×Draw25%

Concón National41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San JoaquínExpected goals in this matchConcón National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.50

Real San Joaquín

1.34

Concón National

1.50

Concón National creates 12% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 31 away

1.20

creates per match

1.65

1.35

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Real San Joaquín

1.20

Concón National

1.65

allows per match

Real San Joaquín

1.35

Concón National

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

Concón National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw

59%

Real San Joaquín or Concón National

75%

Draw or Concón National

66%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

15%

Concón National wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

74%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

39%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

15%

Concón National 1+ goals

78%

Concón National 2+ goals

44%

Concón National 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

45%

Concón National (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Concón National attack 1.65 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more

34%

level

25%

Concón National scores more

41%

Concón National at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

25'

43'

46'

46'

47'

51'

M. Carvajal← F. Barahona

54'

57'

62'

67'

67'

67'

P. Garate Rojas← F. Ragusa

67'

R. Zuniga← C. Jopia Arias

73'

76'

P. Flores← M. Wassenne

81'

R. Gattas

83'

Real

Concón

1

Salcedo

26

▼

Arias

14

Quiroz

12

⚽

Vargas

23

Vega

5

Liuzzi

10

▼

Ragusa

17

Araya

20

⚽

▼

Wassenne

22

⚽

Gattas

16

⚽

▼

1

2

27

6

3

8

▼

Maulen

30

Contreras

28

▼

Pacheco

18

▼

Marquez

9

▼

Barahona

17

▼

Perez

Manager: J. Lizama

46'▲F. Duran←▼B. Marquez

46'▲F. Reyes←▼L. Perez

51'▲M. Carvajal←▼F. Barahona

67'▲D. Munoz←▼J. Maulen

67'▲R. Cobo←▼L. Pacheco

Real San Joaquín substitutes

31Rutherley4Munoz10Carvajal11Duran13Fica19Reyes29Cobo

Manager: S. Núñez

62'▲J. Llanos←▼S. Ubilla

67'▲P. Garate Rojas←▼F. Ragusa

67'▲R. Zuniga←▼C. Jopia Arias

76'▲P. Flores←▼M. Wassenne

Concón National substitutes

3Navarrete27Lopez15Rojas28Alvarez11Zuniga13Pizarro19Flores8Llanos

Segunda División: Real San Joaquín 0–4 Concón National

Concón National beat Real San Joaquín 4-0 in Segunda División on November 30, 2025.

Goals: L. Vargas (24'), S. Ubilla (43'), M. Wassenne (57'), R. Gattas (81').

Real San Joaquín vs Concón National — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Real San Joaquín 0–4 Concón National