Concón National 1–2 Real San Joaquín

Concón National

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real San Joaquín

G. Santelices 39'

J. Carreno 70'

R. Abbruzzese 23'

4/11/2026

Segunda División · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Concón National48%

×Draw26%

Real San Joaquín27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concón NationalExpected goals in this matchReal San Joaquín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

Concón National

1.52

Real San Joaquín

1.07

Concón National creates 42% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 55 away

1.26

creates per match

0.95

1.19

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Concón National

1.26

Real San Joaquín

0.95

allows per match

Concón National

1.19

Real San Joaquín

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concón National+0.00on par

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concón National ↓

Real San Joaquín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Concón National or draw

73%

Concón National or Real San Joaquín

74%

Draw or Real San Joaquín

52%

Winning margin

Concón National wins by 2+

24%

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Concón National 1+ goals

78%

Concón National 2+ goals

45%

Concón National 3+ goals

20%

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

66%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

29%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Concón National (draw refunded)

64%

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concón National at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concón National attack 1.26 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + Concón National defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Concón National scores more

48%

level

26%

Real San Joaquín scores more

27%

Concón National at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

28'

39'

43'

44'

57'

59'

64'

64'

70'

P. Contreras← L. Marcotti

70'

B. Gonzalez← N. Rojas

70'

72'

78'

78'

78'

G. Bustos← F. Cubillos

81'

89'

L. Leger← J. Carreno

89'

B. Marquez← I. Farias

Concón

Real

1

Castellan

6

Munoz

9

▼

Marcotti

2

Navarrete

5

Armijo

11

▼

Farias

4

Benavente

3

Mancilla

22

⚽

▼

Carreno

7

▼

Rojas

24

⚽

Abbruzzes

1

Fuentes

3

Velasquez

5

⚽

Santelice

16

▼

Cubillos

6

Demateis

20

▼

Bravo

8

▼

Alvarez

22

▼

Gattas

9

▼

Vargas

21

Cerda

44'▲P. Pizarro←▼B. Bravo

64'▲J. Plaza←▼R. Gattas

64'▲F. Ragusa←▼L. Vargas

78'▲C. Vega←▼B. Alvarez

78'▲G. Bustos←▼F. Cubillos

Concón National substitutes

12Pizarro23Vega7Plaza11Bustos10Ragusa24Carcamo14Beltran

Manager: Jaime Lizama

70'▲P. Contreras←▼L. Marcotti

70'▲B. Gonzalez←▼N. Rojas

89'▲L. Leger←▼J. Carreno

89'▲B. Marquez←▼I. Farias

Real San Joaquín substitutes

12Saul8Contreras20Reyes18GonzalezFica17Leger10Marquez

Segunda División: Concón National 1–2 Real San Joaquín

Real San Joaquín beat Concón National 2-1 in Segunda División on April 11, 2026.

Goals: R. Abbruzzese (23'), G. Santelices (39'), J. Carreno (70').

Concón National vs Real San Joaquín — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Concón National 1–2 Real San Joaquín