Concón National vs Real San Joaquín — Segunda División 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 31+ matches
Concón National48%
Real San Joaquín27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Concón National creates 42% more chances
Season form · 31 home / 55 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Concón National ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Concón National at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches
Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Concón National attack 1.26 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52
Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + Concón National defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Concón National at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Fernández Vial
Lautaro de Buin
Recoleta
General Velásquez
Colchagua
Iberia
San Antonio Unido
Independiente
Colina
Concepción
Deportes Vallenar
Linares UnidoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Concón National host Real San Joaquín on Friday, 20 June 2025 at 16:30. The match is part of the Segunda División 2020/2021 season.
Concón National 3 – 1 Real San Joaquín
Concón National beat Real San Joaquín 3-1 in Segunda División on June 20, 2025.
Goals: R. Gattas (28', 65'), F. Ragusa (71'), F. Duran (75').
The match was played at Estadio Atlético Municipal de Concón in Concón.