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Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC
Z. Gozo 76'
D. Bouanga 88'
Son Heung-Min 82', 16', 3'
9/18/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 19Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Salt Lake40%
×Draw25%
Los Angeles FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Salt Lake
1.50
Los Angeles FC
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Salt Lake
1.70
Los Angeles FC
1.59

allows per match

Real Salt Lake
1.22
Los Angeles FC
1.31

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.14scores more
Los Angeles FC+0.20scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

Los Angeles FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw
64%
Real Salt Lake or Los Angeles FC
75%
Draw or Los Angeles FC
60%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
19%
Los Angeles FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
78%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
44%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
19%
Los Angeles FC 1+ goals
76%
Los Angeles FC 2+ goals
41%
Los Angeles FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
53%
Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.70 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Los Angeles FC attack 1.59 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more
40%
level
25%
Los Angeles FC scores more
36%

Real Salt Lake at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Son Heung-MinLos Angeles FCLos Angeles FC · F
9.7

Match Events

3'
Son Heung-Min↳ T. Tillman
16'
Son Heung-Min↳ R. Hollingshead
37'
Rwan Cruz
62'
Alexandros Katranis
68'
S. Junqua← B. Vera
68'
J. Russell← Rwan Cruz
68'
N. Caliskan← E. Eneli
74'
Andrew Moran
74'
A. Smolyakov← R. Hollingshead
74'
A. Moran← T. Tillman
76'
Z. Gozo
78'
T. Wolff← B. Ojeda
82'
Son Heung-Min
83'
W. Agada← D. Luna
86'
Y. Yeboah← M. Delgado
86'
D. Martinez← Son Heung-Min
88'
D. Bouanga
89'
R. Raposo← S. Palencia
90+6'
Tyler Wolff
90+3'
Victor Olatunji
90+3'
Victor OlatunjiCard upgrade

Possession

59%Real

Shots

21Real

Pass accuracy

51%Real

Statistics

RealLos
Overview
59%Possession41%
21Total Shots9
3.02Expected Goals (xG)2.36
12Corners2
15Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots9
5On Target6
9Off Target2
7Blocked1
15Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
503Total Passes368
433Accurate Passes297
86%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.44Goals Prevented0.44
Discipline
15Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Major League Soccer: Real Salt Lake 1–4 Los Angeles FC

Los Angeles FC beat Real Salt Lake 4-1 in Major League Soccer on September 18, 2025.

Goals: Son Heung-Min (3', 16', 82'), Z. Gozo (76'), D. Bouanga (88').

Real Salt Lake controlled possession (59%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy.