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Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC
C. Arango 45+5'
A. Gómez 41', 18'
3/2/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 3America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Salt Lake40%
×Draw25%
Los Angeles FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Salt Lake
1.50
Los Angeles FC
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Salt Lake
1.70
Los Angeles FC
1.59

allows per match

Real Salt Lake
1.22
Los Angeles FC
1.31

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.14scores more
Los Angeles FC+0.20scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

Los Angeles FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw
64%
Real Salt Lake or Los Angeles FC
75%
Draw or Los Angeles FC
60%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
19%
Los Angeles FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
78%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
44%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
19%
Los Angeles FC 1+ goals
76%
Los Angeles FC 2+ goals
41%
Los Angeles FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
53%
Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.70 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Los Angeles FC attack 1.59 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more
40%
level
25%
Los Angeles FC scores more
36%

Real Salt Lake at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. GómezReal Salt LakeReal Salt Lake · M
9.2

Match Events

18'
A. Gómez↳ C. Arango
35'
Eduard Atuesta
37'
Braian Ojeda
41'
A. Gómez↳ D. Luna
45+5'
C. Arango↳ A. Gómez
50'
Jesús Murillo
58'
N. Ordaz← Ilie Sánchez
59'
Cristian Arango
66'
E. Segura← O. Campos
67'
É. Dueñas← E. Atuesta
68'
Mateusz Bogusz
73'
P. Ruiz← M. Crooks
73'
M. Chang← A. Gómez
76'
T. Ángel← M. Bogusz
76'
D. Martínez← C. Olivera
84'
Braian OjedaRed card cancelled
85'
Braian Ojeda
85'
Braian Ojeda
86'
N. Palacio← D. Luna
90'
A. Julio← C. Arango

Possession

59%Real

Shots

11Real

Pass accuracy

54%Real

Statistics

RealLos
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots16
2.26Expected Goals (xG)0.71
4Corners8
16Fouls17
Shots
11Total Shots16
6On Target6
3Off Target6
2Blocked4
7Inside Box7
4Outside Box9
Passing
59%Possession41%
406Total Passes266
296Accurate Passes167
73%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls17
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC

Real Salt Lake beat Los Angeles FC 3-0 in Major League Soccer on March 2, 2024.

Goals: A. Gómez (18', 41'), C. Arango (45+5').

Real Salt Lake controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at America First Field in Sandy, Utah.