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Los Angeles FC vs Real Salt Lake — Major League Soccer 2026

Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
10/2/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 46BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Los Angeles FC56%
×Draw23%
Real Salt Lake21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Angeles FC
1.79
Real Salt Lake
1.00

Los Angeles FC creates 79% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

Los Angeles FC
1.60
Real Salt Lake
1.20

allows per match

Los Angeles FC
0.80
Real Salt Lake
1.98

finishing

Los Angeles FC+0.13scores more
Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Angeles FC ↓

Real Salt Lake →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Los Angeles FC or draw
79%
Los Angeles FC or Real Salt Lake
77%
Draw or Real Salt Lake
44%

Winning margin

Los Angeles FC wins by 2+
32%
Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Los Angeles FC 1+ goals
83%
Los Angeles FC 2+ goals
53%
Los Angeles FC 3+ goals
26%
Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
63%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
26%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)
73%
Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Angeles FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 22 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Angeles FC attack 1.60 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.79

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + Los Angeles FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Los Angeles FC scores more
56%
level
23%
Real Salt Lake scores more
21%

Los Angeles FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Los Angeles FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Los Angeles FC 0–1 Real Salt Lake

Real Salt Lake beat Los Angeles FC 1-0 in Major League Soccer on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles, California.