Real Salt Lake 0–1 FC Dallas: Result & Stats

Real Salt Lake

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Dallas

L. Acosta 45'

3/23/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 5Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Real Salt Lake49%

×Draw24%

FC Dallas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Salt LakeExpected goals in this matchFC Dallas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.23

Real Salt Lake

1.71

FC Dallas

1.23

Real Salt Lake creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

1.73

creates per match

1.32

1.15

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Real Salt Lake

1.73

FC Dallas

1.32

allows per match

Real Salt Lake

1.15

FC Dallas

1.68

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.30scores more

FC Dallas+0.03on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

FC Dallas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw

72%

Real Salt Lake or FC Dallas

76%

Draw or FC Dallas

51%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

26%

FC Dallas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

82%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

51%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

24%

FC Dallas 1+ goals

71%

FC Dallas 2+ goals

35%

FC Dallas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

64%

FC Dallas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.15 · 32 matches

FC Dallas away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.73 + FC Dallas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Dallas attack 1.32 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more

49%

level

24%

FC Dallas scores more

28%

Real Salt Lake at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Acosta

FC Dallas · M

8.5

Match Events

21'

Ariath PiolCard upgrade

23'

25'

27'

45'

46'

T. Wolff← P. Ruiz

46'

T. Ntsabeleng← P. Delgado

66'

A. Katranis← S. Junqua

66'

L. Brook← N. Palacio

66'

L. Farrington← Leo Chu

68'

74'

74'

75'

81'

88'

90+6'

90+2'

90+3'

L. Abubakar← S. Lletget

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealFC

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots15

0.89Expected Goals (xG)2.19

4Corners6

16Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots15

2On Target6

4Off Target6

5Blocked3

4Inside Box13

7Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

355Total Passes455

276Accurate Passes384

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.92Goals Prevented0.92

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Major League Soccer: Real Salt Lake 0–1 FC Dallas

FC Dallas beat Real Salt Lake 1-0 in Major League Soccer on March 23, 2025.

Goals: L. Acosta (45').

FC Dallas controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy.

Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Major League Soccer: Real Salt Lake 0–1 FC Dallas