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Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas — Major League Soccer 2026

Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FC Dallas
FC Dallas
A. Julio 62', 24'
B. Vera 11' (pen)
A. Velasco 88' (pen)
J. Ferreira 45+1'
9/19/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 43America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Real Salt Lake49%
×Draw24%
FC Dallas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Salt Lake
1.71
FC Dallas
1.23

Real Salt Lake creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

creates per match

Real Salt Lake
1.73
FC Dallas
1.32

allows per match

Real Salt Lake
1.15
FC Dallas
1.68

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.30scores more
FC Dallas+0.03on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

FC Dallas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw
72%
Real Salt Lake or FC Dallas
76%
Draw or FC Dallas
51%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
26%
FC Dallas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
82%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
51%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
24%
FC Dallas 1+ goals
71%
FC Dallas 2+ goals
35%
FC Dallas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
64%
FC Dallas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.15 · 32 matches

FC Dallas away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.73 + FC Dallas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Dallas attack 1.32 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more
49%
level
24%
FC Dallas scores more
28%

Real Salt Lake at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
A. JulioReal Salt LakeReal Salt Lake · F
8.7

Match Events

11'
B. VeraPenalty
24'
A. Julio↳ G. Beavers
45+2'
A. Velasco← Show
45+1'
J. Ferreira
46'
Ruan← S. Junqua
57'
D. Luna← L. Brook
62'
A. Julio↳ D. Marczuk
71'
L. Farrington← N. Tafari
77'
Diogo Gonçalves← A. Julio
77'
B. Hidalgo← D. Marczuk
81'
B. Kamungo← J. Ferreira
86'
Petar MusaPenalty confirmed
88'
A. VelascoPenalty
90+9'
Emeka Eneli
90'
Matt Crooks
90+5'
M. Chang← M. Crooks

Possession

45%Real

Shots

13Real

Pass accuracy

50%Real

Statistics

RealFC
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots16
2.18Expected Goals (xG)2.38
2Corners5
11Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots16
7On Target5
6Off Target5
0Blocked6
3Inside Box13
10Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
436Total Passes523
353Accurate Passes427
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
-1.12Goals Prevented-1.12
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas

Real Salt Lake beat FC Dallas 3-2 in Major League Soccer on September 19, 2024.

Goals: B. Vera (11' pen), A. Julio (24', 62'), J. Ferreira (45+1'), A. Velasco (88' pen).

FC Dallas controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at America First Field in Sandy, Utah.