FC Dallas 1–1 Real Salt Lake: Result & Stats

FC Dallas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Salt Lake

A. A. Julio Santos 53'

D. Luna 24'

5/11/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 12Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

FC Dallas45%

×Draw25%

Real Salt Lake30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC DallasExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.25

FC Dallas

1.60

Real Salt Lake

1.25

FC Dallas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 25 away

1.42

creates per match

1.20

1.30

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

FC Dallas

1.42

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

FC Dallas

1.30

Real Salt Lake

1.79

+0.55scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

FC Dallas+0.55scores more

Real Salt Lake-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dallas ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Dallas or draw

70%

FC Dallas or Real Salt Lake

75%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

55%

Winning margin

FC Dallas wins by 2+

23%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Dallas 1+ goals

80%

FC Dallas 2+ goals

47%

FC Dallas 3+ goals

22%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

71%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

36%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Dallas (draw refunded)

60%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dallas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.30 · 32 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dallas attack 1.42 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + FC Dallas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Dallas scores more

45%

level

25%

Real Salt Lake scores more

30%

FC Dallas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Dallas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92

N. Caliskan

Real Salt Lake · D

7.7

Match Events

5'

11'

15'

24'

39'

45+7'

46'

Pedrinho← Show

51'

William Agada

53'

A. A. Julio Santos↳ Pedrinho

58'

58'

64'

72'

75'

B. Hidalgo← A. Katranis

76'

Kaick

81'

P. Pomykal← T. Ntsabeleng

84'

J. Barea← D. Goncalves

84'

A. Piol← D. Luna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCReal

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots7

1.22Expected Goals (xG)0.36

2Corners3

18Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots7

2On Target3

4Off Target2

2Blocked2

6Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

477Total Passes495

400Accurate Passes415

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.75Goals Prevented-0.75

Discipline

18Fouls16

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Match Recap: FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake

FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on May 11, 2025.

Goals: D. Luna (24'), A. A. Julio Santos (53').

FC Dallas controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco.

FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake