Real Oviedo II vs Lealtad — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 36+ matches
Real Oviedo II51%
Lealtad25%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Real Oviedo II creates 54% more chances
Season form · 36 home / 82 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real Oviedo II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real Oviedo II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches
Lealtad away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real Oviedo II attack 2.47 + Lealtad defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.63
Lealtad attack 1.41 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Real Oviedo II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Llanera
Covadonga
Caudal
Sporting Gijón II
Mosconia
San Martín
L'Entregu
Ceares
Praviano
Siero
Colunga
Llanes
Avilés Stadium
Gijón Industrial
Lenense
Navarro
Tuilla
Real TitánicoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Real Oviedo II host Lealtad on Sunday, 26 September 2021 at 10:00. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019/2020 season.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Oviedo II 2–1 Lealtad
Real Oviedo II beat Lealtad 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 26, 2021.
Goals: Eloy (18' pen), Javi Cueto (46'), Álvaro Viña (90+2').
The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.