Real Oviedo II 2–1 Lealtad: Result & Stats

Real Oviedo II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lealtad

Isma Armenteros 90+4'

Juan López 85' (OG)

Andoni Ugarte 13' (OG)

2/20/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Oviedo II38%

×Draw31%

Lealtad31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchLealtad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.93

Real Oviedo II

1.06

Lealtad

0.93

Real Oviedo II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

1.04

creates per match

0.85

1.00

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

1.04

Lealtad

0.85

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

1.00

Lealtad

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Lealtad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

69%

Real Oviedo II or Lealtad

69%

Draw or Lealtad

62%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

15%

Lealtad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

65%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

29%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

9%

Lealtad 1+ goals

61%

Lealtad 2+ goals

24%

Lealtad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

55%

Lealtad (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Lealtad away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Lealtad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Lealtad attack 0.85 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

38%

level

31%

Lealtad scores more

31%

Real Oviedo II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Andoni UgarteOwn goal

46'

E. Aguado← Guille Bernabéu

51'

M. Kania← B. Bussmann

69'

Daniel Sandoval← Gabri Salazar

69'

Juan Mera← Jorge Sáez

71'

Eloy← Alberto Fuentes

71'

Joselu Guerra← Andoni Ugarte

78'

U. Hernandez

78'

U. Hernandez

83'

K. Atta← C. Mboup

85'

Juan LópezOwn goal

90+4'

Isma Armenteros

Real

Lealtad

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Emilio Cañedo

46'▲E. Aguado←▼Guille Bernabéu

71'▲Eloy←▼Alberto Fuentes

71'▲Joselu Guerra←▼Andoni Ugarte

Real Oviedo II substitutes

AguadoEloyGuerraLoreaSarrAmezPacoliInglésSteven

Manager: Clemente Sánchez

51'▲M. Kania←▼B. Bussmann

69'▲Daniel Sandoval←▼Gabri Salazar

69'▲Juan Mera←▼Jorge Sáez

83'▲K. Atta←▼C. Mboup

Lealtad substitutes

KaniaSandovalMeraAttaRodríguezPiniellaOtiaCubiella

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Oviedo II 2–1 Lealtad

Real Oviedo II beat Lealtad 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 20, 2021.

Goals: Andoni Ugarte (13' o.g.), Juan López (85' o.g.), Isma Armenteros (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.

Real Oviedo II vs Lealtad — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Oviedo II 2–1 Lealtad